Showing 1 - 10 of 25
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008859037
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009487832
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010243645
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011453358
We assess how the PollyVote and its components performed in this election compared to the previous six (1992 to 2012). While always predicting that Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote, across the 100 days leading to the election on average the PollyVote overshot the mark by 1.9 percentage...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012977521
Forecasting is concerned with making statements about the as yet unknown. There are many ways that people go about deriving forecasts. This entry is concerned primarily with procedures that have performed well in empirical studies that contrast the accuracy of alternative methods.Evidence about...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013037596
The field of forecasting is concerned with making statements about matters that are currently unknown. The terms "forecast," "prediction," "projections," and "prognosis" are interchangeable as commonly used. Forecasting is also concerned with the effective presentation and use of forecasts
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013037640
Traditional groups meetings are an inefficient and ineffective method for making forecasts and decisions. We compare two structured alternatives to traditional meetings: the Delphi technique and prediction markets. Delphi is relatively simple and cheap to implement and has been adopted for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014216928
The Golden Rule of Forecasting counsels forecasters to be conservative when making forecasts. We tested the value of three of the four Golden Rule guidelines that apply to causal models: modify effect estimates to reflect uncerainty; use all important variables; and combine forecasts from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014037140
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012305185