The Bass (1969) model has been a standard for analyzing and predicting the market penetration of new products. The authors demonstrate the insights to be gained and predictive performance of Functional Data Analysis (FDA), a new class of non-parametric techniques that has shown impressive...

Competition is intense among rival technologies and success depends on predicting their future trajectory of performance. To resolve this challenge, managers often follow popular heuristics, generalizations, or “laws” like the Moore’s Law. We propose a model, Step And Wait (SAW), for...

The failure of firms in the face of technological change has been a topic of intense research and debate, spawning the theory (among others) of disruptive technologies. However, the theory suffers from circular definitions, inadequate empirical evidence, and lack of a predictive model. The...