We propose exploiting the term structure of relative interest rates to obtain estimates of changes in the timing of a currency crisis as perceived by market participants. Our indicator can be used to evaluate the relative probability of a crisis occurring in one week as compared to a crisis...

Nach der anfänglichen Euphorie über die Demokratisierung und wirtschaftliche Öffnung mittel- und osteuropäischer Staaten dominieren nun die negativen Meldungen über Stockungen des eingeleiteten Transformationsprozesses. Die Erfahrungen der Entwicklungs- und Schwellenländer zeigen, daß...

I. The Gap between Western and Eastern Europe 3 II. The Starting Conditions 4 III. Three Major Areas of Reforms 6 IV. The Restructuring and Privatization of Firms 9 V. The J-Curve of Output and Employment 14 VI. Sequencing 16 VII. Integrating the New Market Economies into the European Economic...