In recent years, numerous volatility-based derivative products have been engineered. This has led to interest in constructing conditional predictive densities and confidence intervals for integrated volatility. In this paper, we propose nonparametric kernel estimators of the aforementioned...

We consider the properties of three estimation methods for integrated volatility, i.e. realized volatility, the Fourier estimator, and the wavelet estimator, when a typical sample of high-frequency data is observed. We employ several different generating mechanisms for the instantaneous...

For a semi-martingale Xt, which forms a stochastic boundary, a rate-optimal estimator for its quadratic variation (X;X)t is constructed based on observations in the vicinity of Xt. The problem is embedded in a Poisson point process framework, which reveals an interesting connection to the theory...

In this paper, we examine whether jumps matter in both equity market returns and integrated volatility. For this purpose, we use the swap variance (SwV) approach to identify monthly jumps and estimated realized volatility in prices for both developed and emerging markets from February 2001 to...

The basic model for high-frequency data in finance is considered, where an efficient price process is observed under microstructure noise. It is shown that this nonparametric model is in Le Cam's sense asymptotically equivalent to a Gaussian shift experiment in terms of the square root of the...

Recent work has analyzed the forecasting performance of standard dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, but little attention has been given to DSGE models that incorporate nonlinearities in exogenous driving processes. Against that background, we explore whether incorporating...

The 1987 market crash was associated with a dramatic and permanent steepening of the implied volatility curve for equity index options, despite minimal changes in aggregate consumption. We explain these events within a general equilibrium framework in which expected endowment growth and economic...

Based on criteria of mathematical simplicity and consistency with empirical market data, a stochastic volatility model is constructed, the volatility process being driven by fractional noise. Price return statistics and asymptotic behavior are derived from the model and compared with data....