We build an equilibrium model to explain why stock return predictability concentrates in bad times. The key feature is that investors use different forecasting models, and hence assess uncertainty differently. As economic conditions deteriorate, uncertainty rises and investors' opinions...

Semiparametrische Volatilitätsmodelle -- Hochfrequente und Ultra-Hochfrequente Finanzdaten -- Berechnung des Value-at-Risk auf Grundlage parametrischer und semiparametrischer Modelle -- Analyse von Handelswartezeiten -- Glättung der Volatilität von hochfrequenten Finanzdaten in einem...

In this paper we investigate whether the dynamic properties of the U.S. business cycle have changed in the last fifty years. For this purpose we develop a flexible business cycle indicator that is constructed from a moderate set of macroeconomic time series. The coincident economic indicator is...