of the probability of a horse winning - longshots are overbet, while favorites are underbet. Neoclassical explanations of … misperceptions of probability drive the favorite-longshot bias, as suggested by Prospect Theory. …

of the probability of a horse winning—longshots are overbet, while favorites are underbet. Neoclassical explanations of … misperceptions of probability drive the favorite-longshot bias, as suggested by Prospect Theory. …

A procedure is proposed for examining different aspects of performance for judgemental directional probability … the existing accuracy measures, enabling detailed comparisons of probability forecasts with ex-post empirical … directional probability exchange rate forecasts for the US Dollar/Swiss Franc from 23/7/96 to 7/12/99 and the findings are …

An experiment is reported which compares directional forecasting performance of experts, novices and simple statistical … models over three time horizons on a task involving probabilistic forecasts of exchange rate movements. Probability …

We integrate a case-based model of probability judgment with prospect theory to explore asset pricing under uncertainty …. Research within the "heuristics and biases" tradition suggests that probability judgments respond primarily to case … framework's predictions, distinct patterns of miscalibration are found for buying prices, selling prices, and probability …