May 2022 marked the 90th anniversary of the end of Heinrich Brüning's term as Reich Chancellor. To this day, the economic effects of Brüning's extreme austerity measures remain unclear. However, new data and calculations have made an initial quantification of the economic consequences of...

Im Mai 2022 hat sich das Ende von Reichskanzler Heinrich Brünings Amtszeit zum 90. Mal gejährt. Bis heute sind die ökonomischen Auswirkungen von Brünings extremer Austeritätspolitik noch immer ungeklärt. Neue Daten und Berechnungen erlauben erstmals die Quantifizierung der ökonomischen...

Gute Politik und Glück – Was uns die fabelhaften 90er Jahre der USA lehren und was nicht Die Arbeit von Blinder/Yellen ist eine der ersten, die sich mit dem makroökonomischen Hintergrund des langen Aufschwungs der USA in den 90er Jahren auseinandersetzt. Sie arbeitet eindrucksvoll das gute...

Cluster analysis is used to explore the performance of key macroeconomic variables in European countries that share the euro, from the inception of the currency in 2002 through to 2013. An original applied statistical approach searches for a pattern synthesis across a matrix of macroeconomic...

The aim of this paper is to show that random matrix theory (RMT) can be a useful addition to the economist?s tool-kit in the analysis of macro-economic time series data. A great deal of applied economic work relies upon empirical estimates of the correlation matrix. However due to the finite...

Der Rückgang der deutschen Staatsverschuldung auf rd. 60%des BIP in diesem Jahr ist ein Erfolg für die deutsche Haushaltspolitik. Eine Zerlegung der Entwicklung der Staatsverschuldung seit dem Jahr 2010 zeigt, dass der Schuldenabbau in Deutschland im Wesentlichen durch ein über weite Strecken...

Why did Europe fail to manage the euro area crisis and what lessons can be drawn from this failure for Europe"s future? Studying the EU / IMF program that was imposed on Greece in May 2010 – the original sin of the crisis – highlights both the nature of the problem and the difficulty in...

We study Switzerland's weak growth during the 1990s through the lens of the business cycle accounting framework of Chari et al. (Econometrica 75(3):781-836, 2007). Our main result is that weak productivity growth cannot account for the 1993-1996 stagnation episode. Rather, the stagnation is...

This paper estimates the long-term effects of the global recession of 2008–2009 on output in 23 countries. I measure these effects by comparing current estimates of potential output from the OECD and IMF to the path that potential was following in 2007, according to estimates at the time. The...

Since the prolonged recession in 1980–1982 which laid the basis for the emergence of finance-led capitalism in the US there have been four phases of economic expansion. The first three ended with increasingly severe recessions in 1990–1991, 2001 and 2007–2009. The most recent expansion,...