Tests of the null hypothesis of stationarity against the unit root alternative play an increasingly important role in empirical work in macroeconomics and in international finance. We show that the use of conventional asymptotic critical values for stationarity tests may cause extreme size...

Recent portfolio choice asset pricing and option valuation models highlight the importance of skewness and kurtosis. Since skewness and kurtosis are related to extreme variations they are also important for Value-at-Risk measurements. Our framework builds on a GARCH model with a condi-tional...

This paper considers the ability of the Power ARCH model introduced by Ding, Granger and Engle (1993) to capture the stylised features of volatility in 17 heavily traded bilateral exchange rates. This Power ARCH model nests a number of models from the ARCH family. The relative merits of these...

We consider social choice rules which select a lottery over outcomes for each progile of individual preferences. Agents are assumed to have preferences over lotteries satisfying the axioms of expected utility. We exhibit a large class of rules satisfying strategy- proofness.

The estimation of regression models subject to exact linear restrictions, is a widely applied technique, however, aside from simple examples, the reparameterization method is rarely employed except in the case of polynomial lags. We believe this is due to lack of a general transformation method...

Recent policy applications of control theory methods in dynamic economic models raise the issue of imposing the transversality condition for determining a unique optimal control policy. In a stochastic framework this issue involves alternative methods of estimation, which are discussed here both...

The new (2002) version of the "Pre-Accession Economic Program" has to take into account both the experience accumulated in the implementation of its previous (2001) form, and the changes occurred during 2001-2002 in the domestic and international environment, which have affected the Romanian...

The first section attempts to define the main problems, taking into account that the productive performance of the Romanian economy is affected by a double constraint – both from a supply side and the from the demand side. Four essential factors are identified on the supply side: the existence...

This paper presents a small macroeconometric model examining the determinants of Indian trade and inflation to address the effects of a reform policy package similar to those implemented in 1991. This is different from previous studies along one important dimension that we explicitly incorporate...

More than thirty years ago Milton Friedman proposed a 'plucking' model of business fluctuations in which output cannot exceed a ceiling level, but will, from time to time, be plucked downward by recession. The model implied that business fluctuations are asymmetric, that recessions have only a...