The Following Paper Extends the Idea of Monte-Carlo Simulation to the Analysis of Future Population Development in the German Context. in a Disaggregate Model We Distinguish Among German and Other Ethnic Groups Because of Their Different Fertility Rates, and According to Sex and Age. the Results...

Dans la Lignee des Modeles Starima ( Space Time Autoregressive and Integrated Moving Average) Initialement Proposee Lar les Auteurs A.D. Cliff et J.K. Ord (1975C), on Considere Ici une Generalisation du Modele Sar (1) (Shema Spatial Autoregressif D'ordre 1) Applique aux N Residus D'une...