The inability of forecasters to predict accurately the 1990-1991 recession emphasizes the need for better ways for charting the course of the economy. In this volume, leading economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional...

The "Argentine disappointment"-why Argentina persistently failed to achieve sustained economic stability during the twentieth century-is an issue that has mystified scholars for decades. In Straining the Anchor, Gerardo della Paolera and Alan M. Taylor provide many of the missing links that help...

In recent decades the American economy has experienced the worst peace-time inflation in its history and the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression. These circumstances have prompted renewed interest in the concept of business cycles, which Joseph Schumpeter suggested are "like the...

Introduction : the theoretical background -- Medieval England : the Plantagenet cycle (1150-1485) -- Early modern England : the Tudor-Stuart cycle (1485-1730) -- Medieval France : the Capetian cycle (1150-1450) -- Early modern France : the Valois cycle (1450-1660) -- Rome : the Republican cycle...