This paper deals with the estimation of the output gap. We use uni- and bivariate unobserved components models in order … ifo business assessment variable as an indicator for the cycle the estimation of the output gap is much more precise and …

constant over time and the number of working days contribute significantly to the short-term variability of output. …

We propose a simple modification of the time series filter by Hamilton (2018b) that yields reliable and economically … meaningful real-time output gap estimates. The original filter relies on 8-quarter ahead forecasts errors of an autoregression … favorable real-time properties of the Hamilton filter, but leads to a much better coverage of typical business cycle frequencies …