Walk down any main street in Shanghai, Paris or New York and you will see evidence of the counterfeit goods trade. Everyone has seen or heard of fake Prada bags or Omega watches. But how large is the counterfeit market? It appears that the same numbers have been quoted repeatedly in sources...

We augment the existing literature using the Log-Periodic Power Law Singular (LPPLS) structures in the log-price dynamics to diagnose financial bubbles by providing three main innovations. First, we introduce the quantile regression to the LPPLS detection problem. This allows us to disentangle...

This paper presents a tractable, transparent and broad-based domestic cyclical systemic risk indicator (d-SRI) that captures risks stemming from domestic credit, real estate markets, asset prices, and external imbalances. The d-SRI increases on average several years before the onset of systemic...