When Should Nintendo Launch its Wii? Insights From a Bivariate Successive Generation Model

November 2006 most likely marks the launch of Sony’s PS3, the successor to PS2. Later, Nintendo is expected to launch the Wii, the successor to the GameCube. We answer the question in the title by analyzing the diffusion of the earlier generations of these consoles, and by using a new model that extends the successive-generations model of Norton and Bass (1987) by introducing two market players. Based on interviews with consumers and with retailers, we calibrate part of this model. The main outcome is that an optimal launch time is around June 2007, as then total sales of Nintendo’s GameCube and Wii would get maximized.