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Is it better to average probabilities or quantiles?
Lichtendahl, Kenneth C.; Grushka-Cockayne, Yael; … - In: Management science : journal of the Institute for … 59 (2013) 7, pp. 1594-1611
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009784145
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Trimmed opinion pools and the crowd's calibration problem
Jose, Victor Richmond R.; Grushka-Cockayne, Yael; … - In: Management science : journal of the Institute for … 60 (2014) 2, pp. 463-475
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010258783
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Evaluating probabilities: asymmetric scoring rules
Winkler, Robert L. - In: Management science : journal of the Institute for … 40 (1994) 11, pp. 1395-1405
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001176015
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Combining probability forecasts : 60 % and 60 % is 60 %, but likely and likely is very likely
Mislavsky, Robert; Gaertig, Celia - In: Management science : journal of the Institute for … 68 (2022) 1, pp. 541-563
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012821217
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Judgment extremity and accuracy under epistemic vs. aleatory uncertainty
Tannenbaum, David; Fox, Craig R.; Ülkümen, Gülden - In: Management science : journal of the Institute for … 63 (2017) 2, pp. 497-518
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011647370
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Probability forecasts made at multiple lead times
Regnier, Eva - In: Management science : journal of the Institute for … 64 (2018) 5, pp. 2407-2426
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011874346
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Confidence calibration in a multiyear geopolitical forecasting competition
Moore, Don A.; Swift, Samuel A.; Minster, Angela; … - In: Management science : journal of the Institute for … 63 (2017) 11, pp. 3552-3565
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011772472
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Economic interpretation of probabilities estimated by maximum likelihood or score
Johnstone, D. J. - In: Management science : journal of the Institute for … 57 (2011) 2, pp. 308-314
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008901441
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A new goodness-of-fit test for event forecasting and its application to credit defaults
Blöchlinger, Andreas; Leippold, Markus - In: Management science : journal of the Institute for … 57 (2011) 3, pp. 487-505
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008988418
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Herding in probabilistic forecasts
Jia, Yanwei; Keppo, Jussi; Satopää, Ville - In: Management science : journal of the Institute for … 69 (2023) 5, pp. 2713-2732
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014305431