When faced with sequential information, consumers tend to fall prey to one of two well-known heuristics: the hot (or cold) hand and the gambler's fallacy. The authors relate these two traditionally separate heuristics to differences in accepting (buy) versus rejecting (sell) decisions. They...

Competition is intense among rival technologies, and success depends on predicting their future trajectory of performance. To resolve this challenge, managers often follow popular heuristics, generalizations, or "laws" such as Moore's law. We propose a model, Step And Wait (SAW), for predicting...

The authors study the takeoff of 16 new products across 31 countries (430 categories) to analyze how and why takeoff varies across products and countries. They test the effect of 12 hypothesized drivers of takeoff using a parametric hazard model. The authors find that the average time to takeoff...

We propose a model that seeks the optimal timing and depth of retail discounts with the optimal timing and quantity of the retailer's order over multiple brands and time periods. The model is based on an integration of consumer decisions in purchase incidence, brand choice and quantity with the...

We present an analysis of equilibrium in markets with asymmetrically informed consumers. Some consumers know both price and quality of all sellers, whereas others know neither but may search among sellers. The equilibrium correlation between price and quality generally increases with the level...

Product quality is probably undervalued by firms because there is little consensus about appropriate measures and methods to research quality. We suggest that published ratings of a product's quality are a valid source of quality information with important strategic and financial impact. We test...

Innovation is one of the most important issues in business research today. It has been studied in many independent research traditions. Our understanding and study of innovation can benefit from an integrative review of these research traditions. In so doing, we identify 16 topics relevant to...

Sales takeoff is vitally important for the management of new products. Limited prior research on this phenomenon covers only the United States. This study addresses the following questions about takeoff in Europe: 1) Does takeoff occur as distinctly in other countries, as it does in the United...

The abundance of highly disaggregate data (e.g., at five-second intervals) raises the question of the optimal data interval to estimate advertising carryover. The literature assumes that (1) the optimal data interval is the interpurchase time, (2) too disaggregate data causes a disaggregation...

The Practice Prize Reports consist of one article with two parts as follows: “Sinha, Ashish, J. Jeffrey Inman, Yantao Wang, Joonwook Park. Attribute drivers: A factor analytic choice map approach for understanding choices among SKUs” and “Tellis, Gerard J., Rajesh K. Chandy, Deborah...